Final · Week 9 · SEC

Texas 31 Mississippi State 3

Sat, Oct 31DKR-Texas Memorial StadiumNext: at Missouri, Sat Nov 7, 11 AM CT

Our five keys to the game, graded

HitFix the third quarter. 41% success in the third (season 35%) and a 75-yard touchdown drive right after the strip-sack. MSU managed 7% in the third.

HitMove the completion point to the middle. Short middle went 4 of 6 for 86 yards and took 29% of the throws, up from about 20% on the season.

HitTake away Evans III and the left-side run. Evans had 3 catches for 19 yards and lost 10 rushing. MSU ran left only 3 times and finished at 25% success and 187 yards.

SplitWin 3rd-and-4 to 6. 2 of 5 (40%), better than the 32% season rate but still the down that stalls drives.

MissRun right and protect Cojoe. Runs to the right went 2 of 9. Five sacks on 26 dropbacks is the worst sack rate of the season, and one became MSU's only points.

Injury watch for Missouri

Five players left the MSU game. Sarkisian said severity is unknown and he will have a better read midweek.

8 Cam ColemanWR Questionable 23-409Rec-yds · 7 TD 1 Ryan WingoWR Questionable 36-470Rec-yds · 4 TD 2 Hollywood SmothersRB Questionable 283 yds4.1 per carry · 2 TD 29 Graceson LittletonDB Questionable 28 tkl0 sacks · 0 TFL 8 Kade PhillipsCB Questionable 34 tkl0 sacks · 2 TFL 1 Colin SimmonsEDGE Out 25 tkl10.5 sacks · 16 TFL 16 Arch ManningQB Starter 1,727 yds15 TD · 7 INT

Scouting Missouri

Next: at Missouri, Sat Nov 7, 11 AM CT. Every Missouri snap this season, set against what Texas does best and worst. Garbage time excluded.

#8 vs #18SP+ rankTexas vs Missouri

6-2Missouri recordLosses at Mississippi State and Ole Miss

Texas -2.5The lineTotal 43.5 (DraftKings)

#42 / #11Missouri SP+Offense / defense

Six keys for Texas

Take away the short middle.
It is Missouri's best throw (+0.8 EPA per pass, 51% success) and the softest spot in the Texas defense (60% success allowed there). Everything else Missouri throws short averages less than half as much. Make Austin Simmons win outside the numbers.
Make it 3rd-and-long.
Missouri converts 3rd-and-4 to 6 at a 50% clip, throwing almost every time. On 3rd-and-7 or more it drops to 28%, and that is where the Texas defense is at its best (14% success allowed). The game is won on first and second down.
Take the shots.
Missouri's defense is #17 in success rate but #118 in explosiveness: it rarely bends, but when a play gets through it goes the distance. Manning's deep-left throws have produced 62% success and +1.5 EPA each. Short middle (+1.0) is his other money throw, and Missouri gives that up too.
Keep Manning upright.
Texas gives up a sack on 10.2% of dropbacks. Missouri's defense gets one on 6.8% and ranks #14 in havoc. On the other side, Missouri allows a sack on just 2.6% of dropbacks, so the Texas pass rush has to win with coverage, not just Biles.
Make them kick.
Missouri runs 70% of the time inside the 20 and succeeds on 33% of those plays; it ranks #86 in points per trip inside the 40. The Texas defense is #6 in the same stat. Field goals instead of touchdowns decide a game lined at 2.5.
Win the third quarter.
Texas's offense is at its worst in the third quarter (-0.0 EPA per play). Missouri's is at its best (+0.3). That is the 15 minutes this game turns on.

The matchups, by national rank

Rank among FBS teams. The better rank in each pairing is highlighted.

When Texas has the ball

Measure	Texas offense	Missouri defense
EPA per play	#104 +0.0	#22 -0.0
Success rate	#78 41.8%	#17 35.7%
Explosiveness	#87 1.2	#118 1.3
EPA per pass	#66 +0.2	#33 +0.0
EPA per rush	#116 -0.0	#23 -0.0
Line yards	#120 2.7	#12 2.5
Stuff rate	#111 20.6%	#29 22.0%
Havoc allowed	#125 18.1%	#14 19.5%
Passing-down success	#56 32.1%	#31 26.1%
Points per trip inside the 40	#18 4.5	#26 2.9

When Missouri has the ball

Measure	Missouri offense	Texas defense
EPA per play	#51 +0.1	#16 -0.0
Success rate	#80 41.3%	#7 33.5%
Explosiveness	#41 1.3	#14 1.1
EPA per pass	#32 +0.3	#19 +0.0
EPA per rush	#88 +0.0	#19 -0.0
Line yards	#94 2.9	#13 2.5
Stuff rate	#105 20.1%	#33 21.8%
Havoc allowed	#81 15.4%	#10 20.0%
Passing-down success	#78 30.4%	#8 22.3%
Points per trip inside the 40	#86 3.5	#6 2.3

Missouri, game by game

EPA per play on offense and allowed on defense

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA/play allowed

MixedExpect Missouri to move the ball: its offense has been above average in seven of eight games. Its two losses came when the defense got pushed around (Mississippi State and Ole Miss are the only offenses that moved it), and Ole Miss shut the Missouri offense down too (31-3).

The short-middle collision

EPA per pass by zone. Top: Missouri's offense. Bottom: what the Texas defense allows

ConcernLonger bar = more points per throw. The two bars that jump out are both the short middle. Missouri's best target area runs straight into the one zone the Texas defense has not locked down (60% success allowed). Deep zones are small samples.

Missouri's offense by situation

What Missouri calls and how it works, by down and distance.

Situation	Plays	Run rate	Success	EPA/play	Explosive
1st down	201	64.2%	40.8%	+0.0	14.9%
2nd and 7+	101	46.5%	34.7%	+0.3	21.8%
2nd and 3 or less	19	57.9%	57.9%	-0.2	0%
3rd/4th and 1 to 3	24	62.5%	62.5%	-0.0	4.2%
3rd/4th and 4 to 6	32	12.5%	50%	+0.8	15.6%
3rd/4th and 7+	54	16.7%	27.8%	+0.4	14.8%
Inside the 20	70	70%	32.9%	+0.2	7.1%
All plays	463	49.5%	40%	+0.1	15.6%

Missouri players producing the most expected points: Austin Simmons (QB, +79.0), Cayden Lee (WR, +41.1), Donovan Olugbode (WR, +38.7), Jamal Roberts (RB, +25.6). Missouri converts 45 of 103 third downs (44%).

Team trends

Every snap from ESPN play-by-play, weeks 1 to 8. Tap a chart to open it full screen with the numbers behind it. New to these terms? See How to read this.

Texas offense SP+ offense #16

EPA per play+0.0#104
Success rate41.8%#78
Explosiveness1.2#87
EPA per pass+0.2#66
EPA per rush-0.0#116
Line yards2.7#120
Stuff rate20.6%#111
Havoc allowed18.1%#125
Passing-down success32.1%#56
Points per trip inside the 404.5#18

Texas defense SP+ defense #7

EPA per play-0.0#16
Success rate33.5%#7
Explosiveness1.1#14
EPA per pass+0.0#19
EPA per rush-0.0#19
Line yards2.5#13
Stuff rate21.8%#33
Havoc20.0%#10
Passing-down success22.3%#8
Points per trip inside the 402.3#6

National rank among 138 FBS teams, garbage time excluded. Green is top 25, red is bottom 35. Texas is #8 in SP+ overall: an elite defense carrying an offense that ranks #104 in EPA per play.

Success rate by game

Texas offense vs success allowed by the defense

Offense successDefense allowed

MixedA play counts as a success when it keeps Texas on schedule. The offense has been stuck at 37 to 42% in all five SEC games, short of the 45% a top SEC offense lives at. The defense is the opposite story: no SEC opponent has topped 36%, and Mississippi State managed 25%, the best defensive game of the season.

The third-quarter problem

Offense success rate by quarter, season

Offense successDefense allowed

ConcernThe third quarter is where Texas goes cold: 35% success, about 10 points below every other quarter. It has cost real games. Texas led Oklahoma 17-7, Florida 17-3 and Ole Miss 24-3 and gave up 20, 24 and 21 unanswered points. Mississippi State was a good sign (41% and a touchdown drive in the third), but one week is not a fix.

Expected points added per play

Texas offense and what the defense allowed, by game (garbage time excluded)

Offense EPA/playDefense EPA/play allowed

MixedAbove the dotted line means a play did better than an average play from the same down, distance and spot; below means it lost ground. The offense fell below the line in three straight SEC games (Tennessee, Oklahoma, Florida), and two of those were the losses. It has been back above it the last two weeks, with Mississippi State its best SEC game. On the other side, only Ohio State and Florida clearly moved the ball on the Texas defense.

Against the spread

Texas margin minus the closing line, by game. Above zero means Texas beat the number

MixedBars above zero are games where Texas beat the betting market's expectation. Texas is 3-5 against the spread. It was favored in all eight and missed the number five straight times from Ohio State to Florida, because the market priced Texas like a top team and the offense did not play like one. It has covered the last two.

Protection

Sacks allowed (bars) and sack rate per dropback (line)

Sacks allowedSack rate

ConcernMost weeks the protection is fine; three weeks it collapsed. 16 of the 24 sacks came against Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State, where about 1 in 5 dropbacks ended in a sack. In the other five games it was 8 sacks on 175 dropbacks (4.6%), a healthy rate. Open the Offensive line page for the full unit breakdown.

Run blocking

Line yards per carry (line) and share of runs stopped at or behind the line (bars), garbage time excluded

StuffedLine yards per carry

ConcernRun blocking is a real weakness by national standards: 2.7 line yards per carry ranks #120 of 138, and about 1 in 5 runs is stopped at or behind the line. Line yards only credit the blockers for the yards they create, so a long run by a back does not flatter them. Best games: UTSA and Oklahoma. Worst: Florida and Tennessee, two of the games where the protection also collapsed.

Who produces on offense

Success rate on carries and targets, all eight games (15+ touches). Ranked within position

MixedLonger bar = more often the play worked. The receivers are winning more than the running backs. Coleman succeeds on 60% of his targets and Mosley on 54%. In the backfield, Smothers (45%) keeps drives on schedule better than Brown (37%), though Brown has more of the big runs. Names in bold have under 35 touches, so treat their rates as small samples.

Who makes plays on defense

Havoc plays: tackles for loss, passes defended and interceptions, season totals (3+)

Good signBiles (16.5) and Simmons (16) are in a class of their own. Simmons (gray) got his in six games before the ankle injury, and nobody else has more than 7. That is why the pass rush dipped to 1 sack vs Florida, where he got hurt, and 0 vs Ole Miss before Biles took it over vs Mississippi State (3 of the 7 sacks).

Where Manning wins

Pass success by depth and direction, all attempts

leftmiddlerightdeep

62%13 att22.2 y/a

50%8 att19.3 y/a

25%8 att10.8 y/a

short

39%66 att5.1 y/a

57%49 att8.7 y/a

41%74 att5.9 y/a

Cell = success rate. Darker orange = more successful.

MixedDarker orange = more successful. His best throw is not his most common one. Short middle works 57% of the time at 8.7 yards a throw, while short right and short left take 140 of his attempts and work about 40%. Mississippi State was the first game the short middle was featured (4 of 6 for 86 yards). Deep left is a weapon on a small sample: 62% on 13 throws.

Texas vs. Texas

Part 1: penalties. Every flag in all eight games, both teams, with the game situation, what the flag erased, and what it cost in expected points. Turnovers and special teams come next.

53–53Accepted flagsTexas vs opponents. Dead even.

502–450Penalty yardsTexas 52 more over 8 games

69.0–43.7Points given away1.3 per Texas flag, 0.8 per opponent flag

17–6Flags that kept a drive alive30 opponent points on those 14 drives

The verdict: half right

Texas does not draw more flags than its opponents. It is 53 apiece. The difference is the price. A Texas flag has cost 1.3 expected points, an opponent flag 0.8, so the same number of penalties has cost Texas about 25 more points over eight games, roughly 3.2 a game.

The timing theory holds. In the second half of one-score games, Texas flags have cost 21.9 points to the opponents' 6.4. The third quarter is the most expensive quarter (21.7 points), the same quarter the offense goes cold.

It is the defense and the kicking game, not the offense. The offense is cleaner than its opponents (24 flags to 31). The defense has 21 flags that cost 40.1 points, double what opposing defenses gave Texas, and 17 of them handed an opponent a first down it had not earned. Opponents scored 2.1 points per drive on those drives, close to twice their season average of 1.2. Special-teams flags cost another 14.3, 8 of it on the block in the back that erased Niblett's punt-return touchdown.

When the offense is flagged, the series usually dies. 17 of 24 series did not pick up another first down, and Texas scored 1.3 points per drive after an offensive flag against 2.4 on the season.

Points given away, by game

Expected points lost to accepted penalties

TexasOpponents

ConcernTennessee, Oklahoma, Ole Miss and Mississippi State are the four games where Texas gave away 12 or more points. Against Oklahoma, a 3-point loss, Texas flags cost 12.0 points to Oklahoma's 3.0. Against Florida, the other 3-point loss, Texas had one penalty, so flags do not explain that one.

Margins without the flags

Actual final margin vs margin with every penalty (both teams) taken out

Actual marginWithout penalties

ConcernOklahoma flips from a 3-point loss to about a 6-point win once both teams' penalties come out. Tennessee goes from a 3-point escape to about two scores. Ohio State and Florida go the other way: opponent flags helped Texas more than its own hurt, and Ohio State would have been about a 2-point loss.

When it happens

Points given away by quarter, season

TexasOpponents

ConcernThe third quarter is the costliest: 15 Texas flags for 21.7 points, more than twice what opponents gave back in the third. Eight of the 15 came against Oklahoma and Ole Miss, while Texas was trying to protect second-half leads of 17-10 and 24-3.

Which unit

Points given away by phase

TexasOpponents

MixedThe offense (24 flags) is cleaner than opposing offenses (31). The defense is the leak: 21 flags for 40.1 points. Special teams: 8 flags for 14.3 points.

What kind of flag

Points given away by foul type

TexasOpponents

MixedTexas is not undisciplined before the snap (15 pre-snap flags to the opponents' 24). The damage is after the snap: 14 personal fouls (roughing, face masks, unsportsmanlike) for 24.1 points and 8 pass interference calls for 16 points.

At the worst times

Points given away by situation (a flag can count in more than one)

TexasOpponents

ConcernSecond half, one-score game: 14 Texas flags cost 21.9 points. Opponents committed 13 in the same spots and gave back 6.4.

Who is drawing them

Texas players by points given away, all eight games

ConcernBar = points given away, then number of flags. Orange = defense, gray = offense, tan = special teams. Kade Phillips has four flags, all pass interference, three of them on third down or inside the 15. Lance Jackson has four spread across defense and special teams. One of Rasheem Biles' two flags erased an interception.

The 10 costliest Texas flags

Ranked by expected points given away compared with the play standing as it happened without the flag.

8.0points

Wk 8 vs Mississippi State · Q2 3:09 · Texas 10-0 · Punt

Illegal Block in Back · #35 R. Andersen
Wiped out Ryan Niblett's 84-yard punt-return touchdown. Texas started at its own 8, an illegal formation pushed it to the 4, and the drive ended in a punt.
Return TD erased
4.0points

Wk 5 vs Oklahoma · Q3 2:13 · Texas 17-10 · 1st & 10 at Texas 36

Roughing The Passer · #3 R. Biles
Erased Bo Mascoe's interception at the Texas 14. Oklahoma kept the ball at the Texas 21 and tied the game on that drive after a second flag.
OU TD, 17-17
3.4points

Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q4 0:26 · Texas 20-17 · 3rd & 19 at TENN 40

Face Mask · #19 Z. Umeozulu
Texas up 20-17 with 26 seconds left. A 6-yard sack on 3rd-and-19 would have left 4th-and-25 from the Tennessee 34. The face mask gave Tennessee a 1st down at the Texas 45 instead.
Texas held on, 20-17
3.0points

Wk 1 vs Texas State · Q1 9:37 · Texas 6-0 · 3rd & 11 at TXST 24

Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips
Incomplete on 3rd-and-11 at the Texas State 24 would have forced a punt. The flag gave a 1st down near midfield.
Drive ended without points
3.0points

Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q2 5:18 · Texas 10-3 · 3rd & 13 at TENN 28

Unsportsmanlike Conduct · #1 C. Simmons
Simmons sacked the quarterback for a 16-yard loss on 3rd-and-13, then drew the unsportsmanlike flag. A punt from the 12 became a 1st down at the 27.
Drive ended without points
2.7points

Wk 5 vs Oklahoma · Q4 15:00 · Texas 17-10 · 3rd & 9 at Texas 9

Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips
3rd-and-9 from the Texas 9, incomplete. Oklahoma would have kicked a field goal. The flag put the ball at the 2 and Oklahoma scored the tying touchdown.
OU TD, 17-17
2.6points

Wk 3 vs UTSA · Q1 10:34 · Texas 7-0 · 2nd & 13 at Texas 44

Horse Collar Tackle · #99 R. Wesley
Turned a 1-yard loss on 2nd-and-13 into a 1st down at the Texas 29.
UTSA FG
2.6points

Wk 8 vs Mississippi State · Q3 5:35 · Texas 24-3 · 1st & 10 at MSST 25

Face Mask · #28 J. Cryer
On Cryer's own 11-yard sack. Instead of 2nd-and-21 at its 14, Mississippi State had a 1st down at its 40.
Drive ended without points
2.3points

Wk 4 at Tennessee · Q3 14:50 · Texas 10-3 · 2nd & 10 at TENN 17

Pass Interference · #5 B. Mascoe
Incomplete on 2nd-and-10 from the Tennessee 17 became a 1st down at the 32, on the first possession of the second half.
Drive ended without points
2.2points

Wk 7 vs Ole Miss · Q3 10:52 · Texas 24-10 · 2nd & 7 at MISS 23

Pass Interference · #4 J. McDonald
First of three Texas defensive flags on one Ole Miss drive (pass interference, roughing the passer, pass interference to the 2). Texas led 24-10.
Ole Miss TD, 24-17

Every Texas penalty, game by game

Game	Time	Score	Situation	Unit	Foul	Player	Yds	Pts	After
Wk 1 vs Texas State	Q1 9:37	6-0	3rd & 11 at TXST 24	Defense	Pass Interference	K. Phillips	15	3.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 1 vs Texas State	Q2 2:26	28-7	1st & 10 at Texas 21	Offense	Holding	E. Mosley V	10	0.2	Recovered
Wk 1 vs Texas State	Q3 11:39	35-7	2nd & 10 at TXST 42	Offense	Encroachment	N. Townsend	5	0.4	Recovered
Wk 1 vs Texas State	Q4 7:32	49-7	1st & 10 at TXST 35	Offense	False Start	J. Chatman	5	0.4	Series died
Wk 2 vs Ohio State	Q2 1:04	3-13	3rd & 10 at midfield	Offense	False Start	R. Wingo	5	0.4	Series died
Wk 2 vs Ohio State	Q4 6:20	17-23	1st & 10 at OSU 49	Defense	Pass Interference	K. Phillips	7	1.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q1 14:59	0-0	1st & 10 at UTSA 25	Defense	Unsportsmanlike Conduct		15	0.9
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q1 10:34	7-0	2nd & 13 at Texas 44	Defense	Horse Collar Tackle	R. Wesley	15	2.6	Kept drive alive
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q1 3:26	10-3	1st & 10 at UTSA 36	Offense	Personal Foul	C. Robertson	15	0.9	Series died
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q2 10:16	17-3	Punt	Special teams	Illegal Block in Back	L. Jackson	10	1.4
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q3 13:57	20-3	3rd & 19 at Texas 16	Offense	Illegal Forward Pass	A. Manning	5	0.4	Recovered
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q3 13:46	20-3	Punt	Special teams	Face Mask	D. Williams Jr.	15	1.0
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q3 12:45	20-6	Kickoff	Special teams	Holding	K. Brown	8	0.8
Wk 3 vs UTSA	Q4 0:37	30-6	3rd & 1 at UTSA 26	Offense	False Start	J. Christian	5	1.2	Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q1 10:57	7-0	1st & 10 at TENN 25	Defense	Roughing The Passer	L. Jackson	15	1.1
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q1 10:12	7-0	2nd & 6 at Texas 45	Defense	Pass Interference	B. Mascoe	15	1.9	Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q1 6:15	7-3	3rd & 12 at Texas 24	Offense	Illegal Forward Pass	A. Manning	5	0.4	Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q1 5:55	7-3	Punt	Special teams	Illegal Formation	R. Biles	5	0.4
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q2 10:28	10-3	Punt	Special teams	Illegal Block in Back		10	0.7
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q2 5:18	10-3	3rd & 13 at TENN 28	Defense	Unsportsmanlike Conduct	C. Simmons	15	3.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q2 1:18	10-3	2nd & 15 at Texas 29	Offense	Illegal Forward Pass	A. Manning	5	0.6	Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q3 14:50	10-3	2nd & 10 at TENN 17	Defense	Pass Interference	B. Mascoe	15	2.3	Kept drive alive
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q3 9:29	10-10	3rd & 2 at TENN 22	Offense	Delay Of Game		5	1.2	Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q4 14:59	13-10	3rd & 7 at Texas 49	Offense	Holding	C. Robertson	10	0.2	Series died
Wk 4 at Tennessee	Q4 0:26	20-17	3rd & 19 at TENN 40	Defense	Face Mask	Z. Umeozulu	15	3.4	Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q1 9:07	0-0	4th & 3 at Texas 43	Offense	Delay Of Game		5	0.4	Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q1 4:21	7-0	3rd & 5 at Texas 33	Offense	False Start	M. Siani	5	0.9	Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q3 9:36	17-10	2nd & 6 at OU 24	Defense	Offside	L. Jackson	4	0.8
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q3 9:01	17-10	2nd & 2 at OU 38	Defense	Offside	C. Simmons	5	2.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q3 2:13	17-10	1st & 10 at Texas 36	Defense	Roughing The Passer	R. Biles	15	4.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q4 15:00	17-10	3rd & 9 at Texas 9	Defense	Pass Interference	K. Phillips	7	2.7	Kept drive alive
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q4 14:48	17-17	2nd & 10 at Texas 25	Offense	Holding	M. Siani	10	0.2	Series died
Wk 5 vs Oklahoma	Q4 11:22	17-17	2nd & 3 at Texas 30	Offense	Holding	E. Winston	10	1.0	Recovered
Wk 6 vs Florida	Q1 0:58	10-0	2nd & 6 at Texas 45	Defense	Block Below Waist	G. Littleton	15	1.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q1 6:00	3-3	1st & 10 at Texas 25	Offense	Holding	R. Wingo	10	1.1	Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q1 2:14	3-3	1st & 10 at Texas 40	Offense	Holding	M. Masunas	10	0.4	Recovered
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q2 13:54	10-3	3rd & 12 at Texas 37	Offense	False Start	B. Baker	5	0.5	Recovered
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q2 6:45	24-3	3rd & 4 at Texas 31	Offense	False Start	C. Robertson	5	0.7	Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q2 2:00	24-3	2nd & 2 at Texas 19	Defense	Unnecessary Roughness	I. Geffrard	0	0.0
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q2 2:00	24-3	2nd & 2 at Texas 19	Defense	Unnecessary Roughness	L. Jackson	15	1.5	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q2 1:38	24-3	1st & 10 at Texas 3	Offense	Holding	M. Masunas	1	1.1	Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q3 15:00	24-3	Kickoff	Special teams	Unsportsmanlike Conduct	K. Okpala	13	1.0
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q3 10:52	24-10	2nd & 7 at MISS 23	Defense	Pass Interference	J. McDonald	15	2.2	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q3 9:22	24-10	2nd & 7 at Texas 45	Defense	Roughing The Passer	J. Terry	15	1.0	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q3 7:37	24-10	1st & 10 at Texas 12	Defense	Pass Interference	K. Phillips	10	1.3	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q3 0:52	24-17	3rd & 13 at Texas 30	Offense	False Start	B. Baker	5	0.5	Series died
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q4 14:04	24-17	1st & 10 at Texas 42	Defense	Pass Interference	J. McDonald	15	1.4	Kept drive alive
Wk 7 vs Ole Miss	Q4 8:04	31-24	Kickoff	Special teams	Personal Foul	K. Okpala	15	1.1
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State	Q2 10:49	7-0	1st & 10 at Texas 30	Offense	Holding	M. Siani	10	0.7	Recovered
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State	Q2 6:42	7-0	3rd & 7 at MSST 31	Offense	False Start	A. Cojoe	5	0.6	Series died
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State	Q2 3:09	10-0	Punt	Special teams	Illegal Block in Back	R. Andersen	8	8.0
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State	Q2 2:49	10-0	1st & 10 at Texas 8	Offense	Illegal Formation		4	0.4	Series died
Wk 8 vs Mississippi State	Q3 5:35	24-3	1st & 10 at MSST 25	Defense	Face Mask	J. Cryer	15	2.6	Kept drive alive

How this is measured: expected points (EP) value every down, distance and yard line by the next score that tends to follow, using a model fit on 2,055 plays from 15 games (Texas and Mississippi State this season). A flag's cost is the EP after the flag minus the EP if the play had stood as it happened, or the pre-snap situation for a dead-ball foul. Positive means it hurt the team that drew it. "Kept a drive alive" means the flag produced a first down the play itself did not. Accepted penalties reconcile exactly to the ESPN box score for Texas (53 for 502); one 10-yard UTSA penalty in the box score is missing from the play-by-play. Expected points are an average, not a certainty, so read the hypothetical margins as direction and size, not a promise.

Players

Open a player for production by game, why it is happening, and what the booths and press are saying about him.

How to read this

Beast Mode is an independent, fan-built analytics hub for Texas football. Every snap of the season, charted and explained, updated each week.

The numbers we use

Success rate: Did the play keep the offense on schedule? A play counts as a success if it gains 50% of the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, or 100% on 3rd and 4th. Touchdowns always count; turnovers never do. About 40 to 45% is good in the SEC.
EPA (expected points added): Every down, distance and spot on the field has an expected point value. EPA is how much a play changed it. A 6-yard gain on 3rd-and-5 adds a lot; the same 6 yards on 3rd-and-8 loses value. Above zero is a good play; +0.1 per play over a season is a strong offense.
SP+: An opponent-adjusted team rating built from efficiency and explosiveness, created by Bill Connelly. We show the national rank.
National rank: Where Texas or an opponent sits among FBS teams with full data, garbage time excluded.
Against the spread: Whether Texas beat the closing betting line: its winning margin minus the points it was favored by.
Explosive play: A run of 10 or more yards or a completion of 15 or more.
Stuffed: A running back carry that gains zero yards or loses yardage.
Line yards: A way to credit the offensive line for a run without letting a long run by the back inflate it. The line gets full credit for the first 4 yards, half credit for yards 5 to 10, none past that, and is charged 120% for losses. Around 2.8 per carry is solid.
Sack rate: Sacks divided by dropbacks (pass attempts plus sacks). Under 6% is good; near 20% means the quarterback is under siege.
Havoc: The plays that wreck a drive: tackles for loss, passes defended, interceptions and forced fumbles. For players we count them; for teams it is a rate, the share of snaps with one.
Target share: The share of all Texas pass targets that went to a player.
Expected points: What a given down, distance and spot on the field is usually worth in points. We use it to price penalties: a flag's cost is the drop in expected points it caused.
Garbage time: Snaps after the game is decided (a lead over 28 in the second quarter, 24 in the third, 21 in the fourth). Charts use every snap; some tables leave these out, so a few rates differ slightly.

Where it comes from

ESPN play-by-play and box scores for every game. EPA, team advanced stats, national ranks, SP+ and betting lines: data provided by CollegeFootballData.com. Injury and lineup notes come from public postgame reporting. The analysis and every number derived from the play-by-play are our own.

What it is not

We don't have snap counts, personnel groupings or player grades, which come from film charting. Hurries are only the ones the stadium stat crew logged. Read the numbers as a strong guide, not the final word.

Independent

An independent fan project. Not affiliated with, endorsed by or connected to the University of Texas, Texas Athletics, ESPN, CollegeFootballData.com or any broadcaster. Team names are used only to identify the games.

Game	Cmp/Att	Yds	TD	INT	Success	Sacks	Rush yds
TXST W 59-7	20/27	305	4	1	65.4%	1	6
OSU W 24-23	23/37	195	1	1	40.5%	2	24
UTSA W 30-6	16/32	161	2	0	37.1%	1	53
@TENN W 20-17	14/19	201	0	1	57.9%	6	-1
OU L 24-27	19/31	260	3	2	38.7%	2	20
FLA L 24-27	14/20	173	1	0	50%	5	6
MISS W 34-27	18/30	212	1	2	30%	2	2
MSST W 31-3	16/20	220	3	0	55%	5	10

Game	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Success
TXST W 59-7	11	34	2	1	11	0	33.3%
OSU W 24-23	10	54	0	4	1	0	37.5%
UTSA W 30-6	10	41	0	2	10	0	30.8%
@TENN W 20-17	17	67	2	2	8	0	38.9%
OU L 24-27	5	22	0	1	-2	0	33.3%
FLA L 24-27	8	47	1	0	0	0	37.5%
MISS W 34-27	23	157	0	0	0	0	39.1%
MSST W 31-3	8	30	0	2	26	1	40%

Game	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Success
TXST W 59-7	3	8	0	33.3%
OSU W 24-23	0	0	0	–
UTSA W 30-6	7	39	0	57.1%
@TENN W 20-17	0	0	0	–
OU L 24-27	0	0	0	–
FLA L 24-27	0	0	0	–
MISS W 34-27	8	41	1	50%
MSST W 31-3	4	16	0	50%

Game	Car	Rush yds	Rush TD	Success
TXST W 59-7	2	6	0	50%
OSU W 24-23	0	0	0	–
UTSA W 30-6	11	44	1	63.6%
@TENN W 20-17	7	7	0	37.5%
OU L 24-27	8	41	0	50%
FLA L 24-27	0	0	0	–
MISS W 34-27	0	0	0	0%
MSST W 31-3	1	5	0	100%

Game	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Success
TXST W 59-7	7	121	1	75%
OSU W 24-23	4	22	1	42.9%
UTSA W 30-6	2	22	0	16.7%
@TENN W 20-17	6	74	0	100%
OU L 24-27	2	57	1	50%
FLA L 24-27	5	49	0	37.5%
MISS W 34-27	7	111	1	40%
MSST W 31-3	3	14	0	33.3%

Game	Rec	Rec yds	Rec TD	Success
TXST W 59-7	3	70	2	66.7%
OSU W 24-23	4	49	0	80%
UTSA W 30-6	4	59	2	50%
@TENN W 20-17	1	30	0	50%
OU L 24-27	5	110	1	50%
FLA L 24-27	3	18	1	75%
MISS W 34-27	1	12	0	33.3%
MSST W 31-3	2	61	1	100%

Game	Dropbacks	Sacks	Sack rate	QB hurries	RB carries	Run success	Line yds/carry	Stuffed	Flags
TXST W 59-7	34	1	2.9%	0	28	35.7%	2.5	28.6%	1
OSU W 24-23	39	2	5.1%	3	32	53.1%	3.0	15%	0
UTSA W 30-6	37	1	2.7%	5	39	51.3%	3.2	14.9%	2
@TENN W 20-17	25	6	24%	2	23	39.1%	2.1	16.1%	1
OU L 24-27	33	2	6.1%	5	25	40%	3.2	16.7%	2
FLA L 24-27	25	5	20%	2	20	40%	2.0	26.9%	0
MISS W 34-27	32	2	6.2%	7	32	43.8%	2.7	22%	3
MSST W 31-3	26	5	19.2%	2	19	26.3%	2.6	21.4%	2

Texas 31 Mississippi State 3

Our five keys to the game, graded

Injury watch for Missouri

Scouting Missouri

Six keys for Texas

Take away the short middle.

Make it 3rd-and-long.

Take the shots.

Keep Manning upright.

Make them kick.

Win the third quarter.

The matchups, by national rank

When Texas has the ball

When Missouri has the ball

Missouri, game by game

The short-middle collision

Missouri's offense by situation

Team trends

Texas offense SP+ offense #16

Texas defense SP+ defense #7

Success rate by game

The third-quarter problem

Expected points added per play

Against the spread

Protection

Run blocking

Who produces on offense

Who makes plays on defense

Where Manning wins

Texas vs. Texas

The verdict: half right

Points given away, by game

Margins without the flags

When it happens

Which unit

What kind of flag

At the worst times

Who is drawing them

The 10 costliest Texas flags

Illegal Block in Back · #35 R. Andersen

Roughing The Passer · #3 R. Biles

Face Mask · #19 Z. Umeozulu

Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips

Unsportsmanlike Conduct · #1 C. Simmons

Pass Interference · #8 K. Phillips

Horse Collar Tackle · #99 R. Wesley

Face Mask · #28 J. Cryer

Pass Interference · #5 B. Mascoe

Pass Interference · #4 J. McDonald

Players

Quarterback

Running back

Receiver

Tight end

Offensive line

Edge

Interior line

Linebacker

Safety

Nickel

Corner

Special teams

How to read this

The numbers we use

Where it comes from

What it is not

Independent

Arch Manning

Why he produces Analyst read from the data

Passing by game

Attempts and sacks

Pass map

Game by game ESPN box score

Raleek Brown

Why he produces Analyst read from the data

Production by game

Run direction

Game by game ESPN box score

Hollywood Smothers

Why he produces Analyst read from the data